Working Papers

Rigorous research documents with methodology, findings, and policy recommendations

Published Working Papers

Peer-reviewed research exploring the intersections of agricultural economics, rural development, and climate resilience in India.

WP-2025-001

Coping with Cropping: Diversification as a Household Risk Strategy in Vidarbha and Marathwada

Rahul Kumar Singh and Devesh Roy

Studying how farmers in rainfed, high-risk districts adjust crop choices and cropping patterns to manage agrarian risk, and how these adjustments relate to local credit use and labour reallocation. Estimating non-linear responses to climatic and productivity shocks using event-style models and machine learning to identify diversification as a deliberate coping strategy in distressed zones.

Status: Ongoing
WP-2025-002

Moving Up the Makhana Frontier: Value Chain Distribution and the Way Forward for Bihar

Rahul Kumar Singh and Devesh Roy

Mapping the makhana value chain to measure who captures value, identify bottlenecks in grading, processing, branding, and market access, and show where value can be retained in-state. Designing a policy and investment roadmap: local processing and quality upgrading, traceability standards, and links to premium markets.

Status: Ongoing
WP-2025-003

Rainfed Agriculture Needs Migration Policy: Framework for Addressing Agrarian Distress

Rahul Kumar Singh with Bharat Ramaswami

Building the case that seasonal migration should be treated as part of agriculture policy in rainfed India. Developing a framework that links post-monsoon underemployment to mobility support, income stabilisation, and rural welfare.

Status: Ongoing
WP-2025-004

Kin, Peers, and EMIs: The First-Gen Graduate Allocation Puzzle

Rahul Kumar Singh, Devesh Roy, and Mohit Kumar

Building a finite-horizon model of early-career budget allocation with competing claims: student-loan EMIs, kin transfers, sibling tuition, peer-visible consumption, and saving for housing or marriage. Estimating parameters from survey microdata and deriving threshold rules under borrowing limits and interest-rate wedges; simulating policy counterfactuals on loan terms and transfer norms.

Status: Ongoing
WP-2024-005

Dynamics of Caste-Based Informal Credit Networks in SAT India: Implications for Risk Sharing

Rahul Kumar Singh and Sarthak Gaurav

Analysing how caste-based informal credit networks function in semi-arid tropical India, their evolution over time, and implications for risk-sharing among rural households.

Status: Under Review at Journal of Development Studies
WP-2024-006

Weather-Index Insurance Adoption Among Smallholder Farmers: Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation in Vidarbha

Sarthak Gaurav and Rahul Kumar Singh

Results from a 12-village RCT in Wardha and Akola districts. Designed and ran baseline, randomized contract-clarity workshops, and endline. Treatment villages showed higher real insurance uptake among horticulture farmers. Delivered contract-communication guidance to insurer and state.

Status: Journal draft in preparation

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